World Cup Semifinals Handicapping: Party Like its 1974

By MJD

We don't see Germany trouncing yet another strong world football power, as Spain will match up against Der Mannschaft much better than did the tactic-less, unorganized Argentinians, but we still think the Germans will overpower the Spanish over 90 minutes.  The Germans' ability to patiently and effectively defend and then burst forward en masse with precision makes them a very tough opponent for the Red Fury.  Spain will dominate possession but will find few cracks in the German Wall--of course, if they defend well, they only need one crack, as David Villa continues to demonstrate with aplomb.  But physically the Spanish will have a hard time.  Look for Spain to earn many set-piece goal-scoring opportunities as Iniesta and Villa get pushed and shoved to the ground--oh, and the Spanish will certainly flop too if not dive outright.  Regardless, Spain will need a clean sheet or close to it if they hope to get through to the final.

The disgraceful way Uruguay made it past Ghana has been much-written about, and so we won't add our two pesos.  But the soccer-gods are very angry; and the Orange are now an instrument of divine retribution (in addition to being a very, very good side).  Netherlands 3 Uruguay 1.

World Cup Quarterfinals Handicapping: Favorites...or Germany

At this point in the world's greatest sporting event, there are no bargains to be had.  We look into the Luchametric crystal ball and see only favorites...except Germany...except the odds at this point are lame. If you can get odds at +350 or above on Deutschland, go for it.  Otherwise, even though we absolutely can see the organized, workaholic young Germans following Ozil all the way to the final and the world championship, the early odds don't make it a tantalizing punt.  In fact, the books have everything in their favor going into the tournament's final seven matches.

Can the Dutch beat Brazil in a one-off? Of course. Portugal showed that if you fall back and defend your half, Dunga and Co. run out of ideas and have to resort to the defenders making mistakes and/or their skill and athleticism coming through over 90 minutes.  Regardless, the rewards aren't worth the risk. Plus, Brazil at slightly better than one-to-one odds is always a good bet.

Neither Uruguay nor Ghana will be in the final.  But they could easily tie over 90 minutes.  If punt you must, then punt the draw on this one, or the under.  Ghana is young but athletic and fairly well organized; and Uruguay is organized and has some talent--but it's either Uruguay or the draw on this one.  Given how cautiously Uruguay has been willing to play, we like the draw.

Argentina is our favorite to win it all at this point, but the Germans are fully capable of a disciplined and systematic 2-0 win.  Their defense, combined with a deadly counter attack, are formidable.  Their absolute destruction of England showed that not only are they in the running this year, but that the German Youth are in line for the both the European championship in  2012 and the WC in 2014. Damn.  But La Albiceleste are in fine form and could give the German's fits.  Both teams will respect each other, and if you think either squad has fate on its side, go for it.  Team Nordecke Luchador feels this is Maradona's year to secure his place in football history in a way The Chosen One could only dream (Mourinho couldn't play for shite.)

Finally, the very early odds on Spain are irrelevant.  The Red Fury will dismantle Paraguay.  Spain versus Argentina will be epic.  The winner will face La Samba.  Wow.  An all-Latin final; possibly an all-South American final.  Imponente! Que barato! Hagalo mis hermanos! Hagalo!