Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Georgia, Still Russia's Roadblock to Joining WTO

I just wanted to add this update to my ever-growing collection of posts pertaining to Russia joining the WTO [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]. The gist of it is that Georgia remains the main obstacle to Russia joining the international trade body. Given Georgia's outright conflict and continuing troubles with Russia over access to its erstwhile breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the final blocking party was obvious. Imagine having another country controlling access to what you rightfully can claim as your own territory. It's not fun stuff. When we last had dispatches from this front, Switzerland had offered to mediate WTO entry among the quarrelling factions. Many months later, perhaps Swiss efforts haven't been enough. From Bloomberg:
Georgia and Russia haven’t made any “substantial” progress in three months of talks on Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization, Prime Minister Nika Gilauri said. “We don’t see any substantial progress yet even though there are some steps,” Gilauri said today in an interview with Bloomberg News at the World Economic Forum on Europe and Central Asia in Vienna. “So far the talks are going very much in the same mode.”

Switzerland in March started mediating negotiations between Russia and Georgia, which fought a five-day war in 2008 over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia. Georgia has cited disputes over customs checkpoints in South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, as reasons to withhold its approval for Russian WTO membership.

Russia, the largest economy outside the WTO, has been seeking to join the Geneva-based trade arbiter since June 1993. The U.S. announced last year it had resolved most issues necessary for Russia’s accession. “The only request from Georgia’s side is for transparency on border crossings, on customs checkpoints,” said Gilauri. “If there is no transparency on checkpoints, how can Russia become a member of the WTO?”

Russia rejects “politicization” of WTO accession talks by Georgia, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in March. The “political window of opportunity” for Russia to enter may “start to close down” at the end of the year as the U.S. and Russia enter election years, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said in an interview with Bloomberg in Miami in April, adding that he is hopeful an agreement will be reached before then.
Like me, do you find it odd that the US election cycle would put off the Russian bid for WTO membership? Despite the usual paeans to equal membership status, some may be just that bit more equal than others--alike the country that was instrumental in creating it. Some things never change, but you have to wonder if US presidential elections really matter that much in an ostensibly multilateral organization.

Meanwhile, As Clausewitz said, war is the continuation of politics by other means--a perfect explanation of the aforementioned conflict. What better way for Georgia to contest Russian checkpoints located in its breakaway republics but to create roadblocks to Russia joining the WTO? Strictly speaking it's not a trade issue being debated, but how does the "free movement of goods and services" sit alongside your neighbour fencing you out from your own territory? Strange but true.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

The Putin - Formula One Connection

Just a few posts ago, I discussed how Lider Maximo Hugo Chavez was backing the F1 career of Williams backmarker (read: habitual low-place finisher) Pastor Maldonaldo. Watching the F1 race in Istanbul on a lazy Sunday afternoon, I caught sight of another state-sponsored ride. So here's some crass commercialism care of the man who said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.

As it turns out, the Soviet-era marque of Lada has been a proud sponsor of Renault F1 (or more latterly Lotus Renault GP) since 2010. Its sponsor's description is rather sinister and reminds me of, yes, Soviet-era propaganda with its odd fixation on the "military-industrial complex" (their Ike-worship, not mine):
In accordance with Federal Law No. 270-FZ “On the State Corporation “Russian Technologies” dated November 23, 2007, the main tasks of the Corporation are:
- assistance to organizations of different industrial sectors, including the military-industrial complex, in development and manufacture of high-tech industrial products;
- assistance in promotion and sales in domestic and foreign markets of high-tech industrial products and related intellectual activity results;
- participation in implementation of state policy in the areas of military-technical - cooperation of Russian Federation with foreign states and of the state program of armaments production and supply;
- attraction of investments into different sectors of industry including the military-industrial complex, for the purpose of development of competitive high-tech industrial products, including military products;
Creepy...what the heck does all that have to do with selling passenger cars? Just as Arsenal striker Andrei Arshavin is a noted proponent of PM Vladimir Putin's United Front in the English Premier League, so it appears that the erstwhile Russian leader is busy using F1 literally as a vehicle for increasingly the visibility of Russian-owned businesses. You see, Lada is now 25% state-owned, hence the sponsorship deal. From ESPN:
Probably the manufacturer least likely to be associated with Formula One, Russian car maker Lada has announced it will be sponsoring the Renault F1 team for 2010. The announcement, made by Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, is linked to the signing of Vitaly Petrov as the country's first F1 driver. Putin said Renault's signing of Petrov is a "great symbol of cooperation" between the French marque and Russia.

"We will sponsor this activity [the F1 team] as a first step, and do not rule out later increasing our financial participation in the project," the prime minister told news agency EFE.

In 2008, Renault bought a 25% stake in Lada's parent company Avtovaz for US$1 billion, and it is reported that Renault's chief executive Carlos Ghosn may now look to increase its involvement. Although the car will carry Lada branding for 2010, there are no plans to change the team name.
Thank heavens the outfit became "Lotus Renault GP" instead of "Lada Renault F1" [!] What does a marque associated with producing crappy cars during the Soviet era have to do with a sport renowned for exhibiting engineering excellence? Beats me, pal. You learn something weird and new every time you watch the wacky world of F1, where geopolitics and sport mix to usually weird effect.

The somewhat creepy thing is that this team unlike present-day Williams gets a lot more camera time and hence exposure, with Petrov and teammate Nick Heidfeld having already finished on the podium this season.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Georgia On Russia's Mind On Latter Joining WTO

Alike the completion of the Doha Round, another WTO-related possibility that I've covered for as long as this blog has been around--four years already, mind you--is Russia joining the WTO. Actually, Russian efforts to enter the WTO far predate this blog--and even the World Wide Web going mainstream, for that matter. In 1993, during the leadership of the late Boris Yeltsin, Russia began a working party exploring its accession into world trade fora. Despite several twists and turns [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9], let's just say this story isn't quite over yet.

Many of the more recent Russia/WTO posts have concerned the understandable wariness of neighbouring Georgia to allow Russian entry. All existing members must agree to Russia joining the WTO and Georgia beat Russia to the WTO in 2000. Since then, Russia and Georgia have contested the latter turning more towards the West, especially after the so-called Rose Revolution. I suppose Georgia's grievances with Russia are obvious and relevant: First, Russia continues to encourage the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with their populations predominantly of Russian heritage.

As you may have predicted, Georgia is the sole objector in Russia's 2011 edition bid for membership:
The only objector to Russian membership of the World Trade Organization is Georgia. Unsettled conditions for Russian memberships are down to just seven. The chief Russian WTO negotiator Maxim Medvedkov told this to reporters in Geneva on Friday after emerging from the latest round of Russia’s talks with the global trade regulating body. He believed Russia would win full WTO membership in the period between next May and next January.
To put it mildly, I suppose you too wouldn't be happy if another country (Russia) set up checkpoints that prevented transportation within your own territory (into the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia). This, mind you, despite Switzerland being drafted to help mediate between the two previously warring parties.
Switzerland will mediate between Russia and Georgia on joining the World Trade Organization, Alexander Lukashevich, a spokesman at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told reporters in Moscow on Thursday. The Swiss helped arrange three-party talks on Russia's WTO entry that are scheduled to take place in Bern on Thursday.

Russia, the largest economy outside the trade arbiter, rejects "politicization" of WTO accession talks by Georgia, Lukashevich said. "As for the accession of Russia to the WTO, the Russian president stressed the impermissibility of politicization of this issue and the attempts of Georgian officials to debate elements unrelated to WTO membership conditions," he said.

The matter was also discussed between Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden in their meeting Thursday. Biden did not give any direct promises to Putin to facilitate a solution to the "Georgian problem," Putin's deputy chief of staff, Yury Ushakov, said following the meeting. The Americans talked with Georgian representatives about a positive solution to the question of Russia's WTO accession, Ushakov said

Russia's entry has faced opposition from WTO member Georgia, with which it fought a five-day war in 2008 over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Georgia has cited disputes over customs checkpoints in South Ossetia and Abkhazia as reasons to withhold its approval.
To me this is the curious thing: Georgia under Mikhail Saakashvili has courted American favour to (hopefully) distance itself from Russia's overbearing attitude towards its neighbour. Yet, with even the US pressing for Russian membership at the moment, Georgia is still reluctant to let Russia in. Go figure; I guess the scars of conflict remain as forgive and forget are not yet on the menu.

With US and EU powers-that-be pressing quite hard for Russian inclusion, I suppose its foibles are being conveniently forgotten for now. Reasons for this forgetfulness likely include wishing that the biggest trading nation outside of the WTO join to keep the institution relevant. Contrary to the Russian officials' suggestions above, the Russians play politics. Hardball politics. The Khodorkovsky saga suggests arbitrariness in the application and interpretation of the law. Russia's penchant for coming up with random explanations for cutting off gas supplies or raising its price when it suits doesn't inspire confidence, either. As such matters don't fall under the general purview of the WTO, I suppose Russia's case is improved. Then again, be wary of what you wish for is probably the principle in operation here.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Anna Chapman: Political Economy of Lousy Spying

Oh, I just had to make a post on this bit of kookiness out of respect for my boss. What do Andrei Arshavin, Roman Pavlyuchenko, and Anna Chapman have in common? They are all boosters of the pro-Putin United Front. I have mentioned the now-infamous Miss Chapman previously in connection with the notion of "erotic capital." As it turns out, I may have underestimated her hypermarketing in Mother Russia. All this because of being a rank incompetent at what she was supposed to do--spying. I am beginning to think of her as another Russian Anna who was not really a top-rank tennis player but was a looker nonetheless--Anna Kournikova. Men are suckers for this sort of this non sequitur titillation; trust me. In any event, Vladimir Putin is oddly singling her out as a shining example of modern Russia (after being deported from the United States from not doing her job right, obviously). She is also being feted by the Putin Youth, better known as Nashi. The Guardian sheds light on the Russian government's efforts to create a cult of personality around Chapman; she is even being advanced as a political candidate:
A month after their deportation, Putin joined up with the failed spies for a karaoke-type evening, where they crooned together the Soviet-era song – and unofficial Russian intelligence service anthem – "From Where the Motherland Begins". After that cosy night out, things moved fast for Chapman. She was awarded a top state honour by President Dmitry Medvedev, posed for erotic – and lucrative – photos for men's magazines, and was handed her own primetime TV show. She did, however, turn down a role in a porn film, despite being offered a "substantial" fee by the Vivid Entertainment adult-film company.
Hmm...you may not be attracting the right crowd when the triple-X crowd is knocking on your door. Then again, you might as well make some hay when the notoriety shines on you, I say. Fancy public office?
Chapman has also been made the face of the ruling United Russia party's youth movement and has been tipped to win a seat in parliament in upcoming elections. On top of all this, she has registered her surname as a trademark; has brought out a poker app and a slew of Chapman-own products, including perfume, watches and vodka, is expected to hit the shops soon. The 29-year-old provincial Russian also has a Max Clifford-type agent to handle "commercial projects", which include highly paid interviews and photo shoots.
And then, of course, there's the naked truth that all these commercial and political opportunities stem from Keystone Kops-quality "espionage":
The irony is, of course, that Anna Chapman is being rewarded for doing her job badly. Not only was she duped by the FBI into blowing her cover, but she apparently failed to turn up any useful information for Moscow. Espionage charges were not brought against a single member of the spy ring, as there was no indication that any classified information had been accessed. Prosecutors instead had to settle for charges of "failure to declare foreign agent status" and money laundering. Chapman and the other nine agents were exchanged for just four American spies. As US vice president Joe Biden put it: "We got back four really good ones. And the 10, they've been here a long time, but they hadn't done much."
Meanwhile, let's say the Russian blogosphere is not as taken by this dumbing down of public discourse as yours truly. I suppose that Putin's attempts to become the Eastern Silvio Berlusconi isn't going down too well with the intelligentsia:
But despite her ubiquity, it's arguable whether Chapman is popular among ordinary Russians. As ever in this country, it's the internet where people's true feelings find a voice. And Russia's assorted bloggers and message-board users seem to be unequivocal in their disdain.

"Citizen of the world Anna Chapman is undoubtedly the major hero of our vast country," writes one user on Live Journal – Russia's most popular blogging platform. "We all also dream of dropping our knickers abroad and stealing enemy secrets." "A true symbol of our time!" offers another. "How we need such people! Those ready to join whatever they are told to! To sleep with whomever they are told to!" Other comments are more explicit, involving combinations of the words "Putin" and "whore".
UPDATE: Don't miss her video interview, too.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Siberian Shuffle 2011: Russia Finally Joins WTO?

Holy moley, I have written about Russia joining the WTO for practically the entire time this blog has been in existence [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. To be sure, the Russians themselves have been the source of delay more often that not. It had ill-advised run-ins with neighbouring states Georgia and the Ukraine--precisely those it could not afford to offend since it needs all existing members' assent for it to join the WTO. Then the Russians floated the weird idea of it, Belarus and Kazakhstan applying jointly as a customs union. On the balance, there has been a whole lot of posturing, but it appears Russia is now concentrating on appeasing those important to its (sole) bid. Namely, its EU trade partners are keen on seeing some governance improvements to go with less arbitrary treatment of foreigners.

First come the "now is the time" rhetoric along with the West's set of trade demands:
Officials from both Russia and WTO member states have said that 2011 is the year the country will finally sign up — after having started talks in 1993. "The only person who hasn't said it yet is Putin," said Anka Schild, an adviser on international relations at the lobby group BusinessEurope.

At a meeting last fall, the EU and Russia cleared up some of the main obstacles to Russia's WTO membership. They include Russia's high export duties on wood, which have pummeled Nordic paper makers in recent years, and royalties airlines have to pay when they fly over Siberia [en route to . The United States also made similar progress bilaterally. "Now it needs to be multilateralized," said Schild, because all 153 WTO members need to sign off on a newcomer.

One of the demands from foreign countries and companies is that Russia start changing its trade laws and rules on intellectual property now, rather than after it has secured entry into the WTO. Until then, businesses will remain skeptical of Russian promises. "We've heard this story before," Schild said of Russia's request for quick entry to the WTO.
Making concessions granted by Russia to the EU available to others as well is necessary in a multilateral arrangement like the WTO. For those who regularly fly between Europe and Asia, I find it interesting carriers still need to pay up for the right to traverse Russian (to be more accurate, Siberian) airspace as a holdover of Cold War-era dealmaking. An older WSJ article points out that this source of revenue is lucrative. What's more, proceeds go to the not-so-profitable national carrier Aeroflot. In effect, Lufthansa, KLM, etc. subsidize their erstwhile competitor. Strange but true:
Europe is trying to use Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization to put a stop to the payments. Until now, Aeroflot has been able to play divide and conquer with foreign carriers. That's because when it comes to aviation, each of their governments deals separately with Moscow. But in WTO talks, all 15 European Union countries speak with one voice [this is a 2002 article, remember]. Their negotiators see the overflight charges as far more than just an aviation issue. For them it violates basic free-trade principles, and they say the practice has no place in the world trade club...

For years the full scope of the overflight system remained obscure. Aeroflot, which is 51% state owned, makes only oblique references to the payments in its annual financial disclosures, referring to them as "commercial agreements."
Returning to the present, Russia is also keen on wangling concessions from its interlocutors. The EU is its largest trading partner, and it is keen to hear more about the EU's plans to wean itself off Russian energy. (Maybe Russia's willingness to shut pipelines to Ukraine over political squabbles also feeds Western European fears.) We've also got continued EU insistence on discussing human rights, with Russia hitting back on the welfare of those of Russian descent living on EU soil:
But Russia has some demands, as well, and Putin comes to Brussels with 12 of his cabinet ministers — including those in charge of foreign affairs, investment and energy — who will push their points of view in meetings with their counterparts in the EU's executive Commission. "This will not be a meeting of the mutual admiration society," said Vladimir Chizov, Russia's ambassador to the EU. "I wouldn't exclude that on some issues, some discussions will not be very smooth."

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will bring up the bloc's concerns about human rights, the rule of law and democracy in Russia when he meets with Putin, a Commission spokesman said Wednesday. At the heart of those concerns is Russia's reluctance to investigate the killings of several journalists and lawyers who had been critical of the government as well as its support for Belarus, which the EU sees as the last authoritarian state on the continent.

The Russian government, meanwhile, complains the EU is not protecting the rights of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states. "The expectation of the EU is that as soon as a country joins it is immediately exempt from criticism. Unfortunately, double standards and biased approaches are quite often visible," Chizov said...

Russia wants better access to the EU for its companies. In the agricultural sector, for instance, only 14 Russian companies are certified to do business in the EU, while about 4,000 European firms work in Russia's agricultural sector, Chizov said.

Central to Russian fears about being squeezed out of the European market is its gas monopoly OAO Gazprom. Earlier this week, Gazprom's CEO, Alexei Miller, asked the EU to clarify rules in its new energy strategy, also known as the Third Energy Package, which aims to separate gas production from pipeline management to prevent one company from controlling the entire supply chain in a country.

Europe is Russia's most important market for gas, but Russia has been concerned about the European Union's plans to diversify its sources of supplies. Many EU countries, including all Baltic states, Slovakia and Finland, get all their gas from Russia, which in the past has cut off supplies amid disputes over pricing.
There is still much to discuss, obviously, before Russian WTO membership is even contemplated. In the meantime, Moscow's road to WTO headquarters in Geneva passes through Brussels via the European Commission.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Of Sexy Russian Spies and 'Erotic Capital'

Lest you think I've become an econodullard obsessed with discount rates and multiplier effects--it's easy enough to find plenty enough of those without looking hard--here's funner stuff that showcases the diversity which the best IPE encompasses. Freakonomics-style dweebery doesn't count by the way; let's just say I don't prattle endlessly about the veracity of being described as "concave-chested." Anyway, to today's post. A few months ago, the headlines were littered with headlines of American authorities arresting and sending away the Russian spy Anna Chapman. The gaffer here at LSE IDEAS, Professor Michael Cox, was inordinately proud to have a feature in The Sun on her alleged spying escapades. He further exclaimed that unlike el cheapo academic publications, this Rupert Murdoch news outlet paid its contributors--and pretty well to boot.

The curious thing was that Anna Chapman did not appear to have stolen any meaningful information. The only remarkable thing about the episode was that, yes, she was an attractive Russian spy--certainly the stuff of Cold War-era spy novels and male imaginations. Not quite being a real spy like Valerie Plame, Miss Chapman subsequently lost her British citizenship and used her newfound celebrity for material gain. Nothing wrong there, actually--from appearing in her skivvies (with weaponry, even!) in the Russian edition of Maxim to recently hosting an otherwise unremarkable mystery show in her homeland in, er, skimpy attire.

Closer to the end of last year, we had another spy scandal here in the UK involving an attractive, young Russian lady that didn't receive as much attention abroad (at least until she appears in FHM, Maxim, Stuff or another of those lad's mags). Ekaterina 'Katia' Zatuliveter was working as an aide to Liberal Democrat MP Mike Hancock when the UK Border Agency had her arrested and scheduled for deportation over not being "conducive to national security."

It seems that the brain trust here at the LSE is of two minds about these mildly salacious stories. On one hand, Avery Hancock sees popular commentary as juvenile:
It seems clear then for both journalists and their sources that Ms Zatuliveter’s beauty, age, or hair colour are all judged highly relevant in forming the basis for such serious allegations. Yet, leaving aside possible connections to the FSB, why is it so surprising that young, educated women (not girls, I would point out) should be taking part in internships, or looking for jobs pointing towards a political career? Some commentators have pointed out that her researcher position in the Commons may have only served as launch pad into a more powerful career in government. But that is precisely what hundreds of parliamentary researchers (many of whom are foreign) are trying to do. The LSE runs a very popular scheme that places many of our graduate students (often from overseas) with MPs as interns to do just that. So until we find out that Ms Zatuliveter’s intentions were to penetrate the heart of British government in order to spy, it seems unfair to criticize her ambition as well.
My preferred, actually very gender-neutral theoretical application is this notion of 'erotic capital'. Instead of overdoing the politically correct route by ignoring that looks matter--for both sexes, actually--why not try to describe it, quantify it, and explain how it is deployed? In the beginning, we had old-fashioned economic capital familiar to readers of classical political economy. Then Chicago School sociologist Gary Becker came up with 'human capital'. Later came the notion of 'social capital' still very much in vogue with policymakers. Not to be outdone, environmentalists coined the term 'natural capital'. Pretty soon, some bored political scientists came up with 'political capital'. Bewildered with this veritable explosion of capitals, Catherine Hakim of our Sociology department has come up with yet another sort of capital:
Erotic capital is the implicit but powerful commodity that can count just as much as educational qualifications in the labour market, politics, media or the arts, finds a new report published today by a sociologist at the London School of Economics and Political Science. 'Beauty and sex appeal have become more important personal assets in the sexualised cultures of our liberal, modern societies, often just as important as educational qualifications' says Dr Catherine Hakim in the study.

She coins the term 'erotic capital' to refer to this difficult-to-define but crucial combination of physical and social attractiveness which makes some men and women agreeable company and colleagues, attractive to all members of their society and especially to the opposite sex. She says: 'People who possess an above-average amount of erotic capital are more persuasive, are more often perceived as honest and competent. They find it easier to make friends, get jobs, get married, and tend to earn 15 per cent more on average as well'.
And here's a list of the seven components of erotic capital:
  1. Beauty - Though it varies across times and cultures, great beauty is always in short supply and highly-prized by all societies. The modern emphasis on photogenic features means that men and women with large eyes and mouths and sculpted faces are valued. Conventionality, symmetry and an even skin-tone also contribute to attractiveness.
  2. Sexual attractiveness - This can be quite separate from classic beauty. Beauty is mainly about facial attractiveness while sexual attraction is largely about a sexy body. However sex appeal can also be about personality and style, femininity or masculinity, a way of being in the world. Beauty tends to be static and easily captured in a photo while sexual attractiveness is about the way someone moves, talks and behaves so it can only be captured on film.
  3. Social attractiveness - Includes grace, charm and social skills – the ability to make others feel at ease and happy, wanting to know you and, possibly, desire you.
  4. Liveliness - A mixture of physical fitness, social energy and good humour. As illustrated by those who are 'the life and soul of the party'
  5. Presentation - This includes the way you dress, style your hair, wear make-up or perfume and jewellery. People who are skilled at these accomplishments are more attractive.
  6. Sexuality itself - A category that includes sexual competence, energy, erotic imagination, playfulness and all the things that constitute a sexually satisfying partner. Not the same thing as having a strong libido, although those that do are more likely to acquire these qualities through experience. The only one of the six which usually only applies in private, rather than social, situations.
  7. All six categories apply to some extent to both men and women However for women, in some cultures, there is a seventh category – of fertility. In many cultures a fertile woman is regarded as having extra attractions, especially if her children are healthy and beautiful.
Returning to our Russian spies, there is an explanation for the phenomenon at hand:
She finds that women have the edge over men in these areas, partly because women work harder at being physically and socially attractive, and at dressing well. However, another reason is the large sex deficit that affects more men than women, universally. Recent national sex surveys show that, around the world, men's sexual interest greatly exceeds women's sexual interest and activity, especially among people aged 35 and over. So women are in greater demand as sexual partners, a dramatic reversal of men's advantage in courtship and marriage markets.
So there you are. Cue the Apollonia 6 for old time's sake while you're at it. Let's say I'm not entirely sold just yet, but there are certainly testable hypotheses here that can be examined through the use of survey data and experiments. You can read the entire journal article to make up your mind. (Unsurprisingly, there are sceptics out there.) Meanwhile, the proliferation of various forms of capital being identified is driving me bonkers to the point of wishing I were an orthodox Marxist alike social capital critic Ben Fine who has built a career repeating the idea that capital is indivisible ad infinitum.

But hey, if Marxists were considered sexy, maybe I should become one. Vladimir Putin did say that the collapse of the Soviet Union was last century's worst geopolitical catastrophe. As the saying goes, if you can't beat 'em...

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Khodorkovsky, Rule of Law & Russia Joining WTO

This is yet another entry in the long-running saga of Russian WTO accession [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. I think you know how this story goes: the seemingly arbitrary (re-)incarceration of Vladimir Putin's political foe and onetime oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky bodes ill for Russia's attempts to join the WTO for obvious reasons. To Western eyes, the lack of stability and transparency in Russia are definite no-nos whose implications spill over into the trade realm. That is, how can the whims of a handful be the basis for its membership in a rule-based organization?

First we have a US trade official commenting on how this has set back Russia's chances (as if it were making significant strides, but I digress):
The sentencing handed down to former Russian tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky will complicate Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization, a senior Obama administration official said on Thursday.

"It is not going to help their cause, it is only going to complicate their cause," the official said. "The WTO is a rules based, rule of law organization. Most countries around the world do not look at this verdict as a demonstration of the deepening of the rule of law in Russia. It will definitely have an effect on Russia's reputation," the official added.
Ah, but don't worry, says Vladimir Putin. He sees 2011 as the year it finally happens. In fact, he's rather less worried about governance than he is about keeping automobile tariffs intact:
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia can be expected to enter the World Trade Organization in 2011, but "questions still remain," Interfax reported.

Putin also said Moscow could use "the so-called technical regulations," used by the members of WTO, to protect its auto industry after entering the organization. "If we see that the auto industry gets into unequal conditions of competition, we will find the methods of protection," Putin said.
Putin makes it sound as if Russia would be doing the WTO a favour instead of the other way around IMHO.