Luchametric MLS Handicapping: Dallas and Seattle at Home

By MJD

A lot of MLS matches between Thursday and Sunday.  Some should be very entertaining.  The Crew at Philly should be quite good given the atmosphere at PPL Park, as should be New York and Henry at Chicago.

For punters, however, there are really no good values.  The two best bets are Dallas at home over Philly, and Seattle at home over Houston.

Philly will have played the Crew on Thursday before flying to Dallas.  Look for them to get trounced in the Texas heat playing with only two days rest against a Dallas team that is currently third in our Power Rankings and which has won or drawn 88% of its home games this season.

At slightly-less-than-even odds, Seattle at home against down-table Houston is, dare we say it, a very SOUND bet. LOL! Get it? "Sounders" and "sound" bet! That's freaking gold Jerry! Gold!

Anyway, that's all we got this week.  Look for our inaugural 2010-2011 EPL recommendations sometime next week.  Meanwhile, dig on this.

Luchametric MLS Handicapping: Crew and RSL to both Win at Home

By MJD
We've modified our handicapping table to now include the actual win, loss and draw percentages of each team.  This allows you to compare the teams not only in terms of the LM power score, but also compare the probability of a home win, away win, or draw offered by the books, to the actual performance of each team thus far.

So, this weekend, the books have the Crew at -120 and Houston at +400.  This means that the books are giving the black and gold a 55% chance of a win, Houston a 20% chance of a win, and the draw a 27% chance probability.

As the chart indicates, however, the Crew this season have won 78% of their home games, Houston have lost 57% of their road games, and the Crew have NEVER drawn at home.

This means we think the draw is the least likely bet in this match.  More importantly, we think the Crew to win is a great value bet.  The books have lowered the chance of Crew win by over 20%.. We think they're on crack.  Take the Crew to win and head to the Nordecke. Hagalo Columbus! 'Til I Die!

We also very much like RSL at home.  We think the numbers again speak for themselves.